Blazing Workout

The other day I mentioned a new 2yo filly named Blazing Reflection that I've acquired an interest in recently.  Today I went out to Golden Gate Fields to watch her run a 3 furlong workout, her third offical work so far in her career.  I'm happy to say she looked really good and moved smoothly over the Tapeta surface running the 3/8ths of a mile officially in 36 1/5 seconds.  That was good for 4th of the 27 horses that worked that distance today, with every horse ahead of her at least 4 yrs old.  Both trainer and jockey reported that she worked really well and were encouraged by the results. 

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Arlington Million Day

Perhaps the best day of turf racing in the US happens Saturday at Arlington Park in Illinois with the Arlington Million (gr. I) headlining the card. Three Grade 1 races on the turf are scheduled for Saturday with the Beverly D for fillies and mares, and the Secretariat for 3yos also on the docket. The big races start with race 7 at 3:05 CST, lets take a look.


Secretariat Stakes (gr. I): The first of three straight Grade I turf races starts with 3yos in the Secretariat Stakes at 1 mile and a quarter. The race appears to be fairly wide open with Giant Oak being the 3-1 M/L favorite. #10 Giant Oak won the Arlington Classic two starts back but could only manage 4th in the American Derby (gr. II) with both #8 Reb and #5 Oil Man finishing ahead of him. I like Reb alot as he has won three in a row including a win over the track, and has Julian Leparoux aboard (3-3 on the horse). He absolutely flies and couldn't be any gamer winning his races by a head, a nose, and a head.

The other horse I really like is #9 Black Bear Island by legendary sire Sadler's Wells, and is a full brother to arguably the best turf horse of the 90's, High Chaparall who won the Epsom Derby (gr. I), the Irish Derby (gr. I) and the Breeders Cup Turf (gr. I) twice. He's a Grade II winner in England, but has been knocking heads with the best in Europe this year. First-time Lasix angle, plus top trainer Aiden O'Brien isn't sending him for fun. Love his chances, the class of the field.

#7 Take the Points out of the Todd Pletcher barn will be well bet, and is certainly capable, but I don't like him too much. Ran a decent 3rd in the Va Derby (gr. II), but has still not yet won a turf race yet in his career. Talented, but a likely underlay vs. better.

Hoosier Kingdom has won 4 in a row vs. lesser and has speed but appears overmatched. #3 Proceed Bee may grab a slice coming late.

The Pick: My top pick is the 9 Black Bear Island, just think he has too much class, but I also like Reb's chances and will include him in the exotics.

Beverly D. Stakes (gr. I): Unfortunatley Christophe Clement will not extend his two year win streak for this "win and your in" race as he hasn't a starter, but it should be a well conested battle. When The Aga Khan ships a horse to this race, you better recognize, the #1 Alnadana comes into this race off a grade III win in France 3 weeks ago. The grey Alain Dupre filly by Danehill Dancer is 4-1 on the ML. The other European import with a good shot is #5 Mad About You who was only a head away from the Irish One Thousand Guineas last year and has already captured a Group III win this year.

The top US entries are #2 Pure Clan, a grade I winner in 2008, she's coming off a grade III win over this track last month. Also #4 Black Mamba out of the John Sadler barn looms a major contender. She's coming off a win in the grade II Beverly Hills Handicap at Hollywood Park and has a grade I under her belt, but usually runs in So. Cal. #6 Tizaqueena by Tiznow is intriguing, but hasn't won since May and appears slightly overmatched.

While this race could be won by any of these entries, I'm focusing on the Euro class again in #1 Alnadana as the top choice with #2 Pure Clan as the likely place runner, i'll use both in multi-race bets.

Arlington Million (gr. I): A great race with four millionaires entered. To me it comes down to two. Does Presious Passion hold on to his lead, or does Gio Ponti run him down at the end. If you aren't familiar with #2 Presious Passion take a look at this.



If you are worried about him getting into a pace duel, stop, it doesn't matter. He just keeps running faster each race. In the United Nations he goes 1:09 4/5 and still wins by 2. Maybe Gio Ponti, who can absolutely fly in the lane catches him, but if Presious Passion runs his race he wins, I really think its that simple. He's won 4 of his last 5 turf races only finishing 2nd in the Sunshine Millions Turf at Santa Anita. With 12 career wins and $1.8mln in the bank, PP really seems to be peaking at age 6.
Foreign horses have done well in this race and #7 Gloria De Campeao seems to be the top contender. He took the Grade I Singapore Cup and finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup (gr. I) in March. The incredibly bred #8 Cima de Triomphe by Galileo out of a stakes winning Danehill mare won the Grade I Italian Derby last year but hasn't quite reached that class this year...still, he looms a threat.

The Bet: The $300k guaranteed pick 3 is an enticing bet. Here's my picks:

Top bet: 7,8,9 / 1,2,4,5,6 / 2 $15 pick 3
8,9/ 1,2 / 2,6,7 $12 pick 3

total bets $27
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Less than a week until Derby Day

The prep races are done and the field is taking shape for the 135th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 2nd. A quick look at the Graded Earnings list reveals that all of the contenders with any real shot at winning the run for the roses are in the top 20.

Two months ago I chronicled 3 horses I thought would be top contenders next Saturday, and in fact all 3 won their prep races with Pioneerof the Nile taking the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), Friesan Fire winning the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and Quality Road winning the Florida Derby (gr. I).

Friesan Fire attempts to win the Derby off of a 7 week layoff, not the most common path, but his LA Derby win was flattered by Papa Clem's win in the Arkansas Derby over Old Fashioned. Trainer Larry Jones has had recent success in the Derby with the last two second place finishers, Hard Spun and the ill-fated Eight Belles. He's been working very well and has the pedigree to be a serious threat but the obviuos question is can he win outside of the Fairgrounds.

All Pioneerof the Nile has done is win 4 in a row including two Grade 1's for recently voted in Hall-of-Fame trainer Bob Baffert, no stranger to the winner's circle at Churchill Downs. But he's only won his races on synthetics. He hasn't posted a Beyer Speed figure over 100. The last Santa Anita Derby winner to win the Kentucky Derby was Real Quiet back in 1998, also for Baffert. One key thing on his side is jockey Garrett Gomez, who also rides Dunkirk, has selected Pioneer as his Derby mount, which is nothing to sneeze at given his success this year and knack for winning big races.

Quality Road could be the post-time favorite on Saturday but has been bothered by quarter cracks on his hooves the past few weeks. His Florida Derby win was quite impressive as he set the 9 furlong track record at Gulfstream while dusting top contender Dunkirk in the process. He's probably the fastest horse in the field, but is also inexperienced having only raced four times. The result of his 5F breeze on Monday and how the hoof holds up will be key in whether he starts in the Derby.

I Want Revenge looms the largest of the other 17 contenders by virtue of his two straight stakes wins at Aqueduct in tremendous fashion after beginning his career in California winning only once on the synthetics. He blitzed the field in the Gotham (gr. III), and rallied from last place to take the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I). I Want Revenge is by Stephen Got Even, best known for siring 2yo champion Stevie Wonderboy, out of the Argentine bred Roy mare Meguial. Meguial was Group 1 placed in her native country with I Want Revenge being her second foal.

The next tier of contenders includes the wiseguy choice- Dunkirk, a pair of Dubai imports - Regal Ransom and Desert Party, and major prep winners General Quarters, Musket Man and Papa Clem. I'll take a more detailed look at these horses and the other starters in subsequent posts.

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February 28th Derby Preps

Back after a week off from the Derby trail, there are two preps of interest this week. From Gulfstream Park in Florida is the Fountain of Youth S. (gr. II), and from Santa Anita in California the Grade III Sham S. is on tap. The Fountain of Youth features Hutcheson Stakes (g. II) winner Capt. Candyman Can, and a few sprinters that posted eye-popping Beyer Speed Figures in their prior starts. In the Sham, leading west coast contender The Pamplemousse preps for a likely start in the Santa Anita Derby in April.

Fountain of Youth (g. II) Preview

The 2009 edition of the Fountain of Youth Stakes will be run at one mile instead of the recent 1 1/8 mile distance, and this could play a huge factor in the outcome of the race. The one-turn mile on Gulfstream's speed favoring main track attracted twelve entrants despite a $100,000 reduction in purse monies from 2008.

Recent stakes winning sprinters #3 Notonthesamepage, #10 Taqarub , and #12 This Ones for Phil look to stretch out their blazing speed to 8 furlongs and try to get into the thick of the Derby hunt. This Ones for Phil comes in after a ludicrous 116 Beyer figure in the 6F Sunshine Millions Dash in his first start for trainer Rick Dutrow, who won last year's Kentucky Derby with Big Brown. The 116 was 40 points higher than his prior pre-Rick race, quite an improvement for only a 2 month hiatus, and good enough to make him the 3/1 ML favorite. He has won at the distance, a pedestrian 1:41 1/5 in September in a minor stakes race. He seems likely to bounce, or be compromised by the pace in this one.

Notonthesamepage just missed a track record for 6F at Gulfstream in the Spectacular Bid Stakes last month clocking in at 1:08 2/5, but ran poorly in two Grade 1's last fall. Taqarub was impressive winning the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct but has never run farther than 6 furlongs. His pedigree suggests the distance won't be a problem, and he may excel on the lawn in the future as his dam is a 1/2 sister to Breeders Cup Filly & Mare winner Soaring Softly, but this seems like an awfully tough spot for him.

#9 Capt. Candyman Can is a logical contender after winning the Hutcheson in his last race, also at Gulfstream Park. He also won the Iroquois (gr. III) at Churchill last November at this mile distance. #8 Break Water Edison by Lemon Drop Kid out of a stakes winning dam won the Grade III Nashua two back, but ran poorly in the Hutcheson. He seems suited for routing and closed sharpy in his stakes win and offers great value at 15/1. #1 Bee Cee Cee and #6 Rocketing Returns also exit the Hutcheson but both look to be a second tier sprinters. #6 Beethoven didn't run well in the Holy Bull (gr. III) but has won a Grade II route last November. #2 Theregoesjojo recently won an Allowance at Gulfstream and the connections of Desormeaux/McPeek are firing at 33% in the past 60 days (in 51 starts). He should be able to stalk the pace and close, but his class is the question. #4 Take the Points is expected to scratch.

The Pick

I think there'll be a ton of pace, but I also think the winner will have to be coming from just off the pace, and not too far back. #9 Capt. Candyman Can really fits that profile as does #7 Beethoven and #8 Break Water Edison but I'm going to go with the latter as the pick as John Kimmel adds blinkers which I think will help him stay alert.

The Bet

I'm 0-fer the blog so far betting so I hope I can change my luck.

$10 Win/Place #8 - $20 total

$2 Exacta 7,8 with 2,7,8,9 - $16 total

Sham Stakes (gr. III) Preview

The Sham may offer the chance for a newcomer to spring on the west coast scene but more than likely it'll be a tune-up for Grade III winner The Pamplemousse. The only two other multi-winners are #2 Smart Bid and #12 Take the Points. Smart Bid by Smart Strike out of a Danzig mare won on the turf in his last start with Rafael Bejarano and looks for three in a row. Take the Points was cross entered in the Fountain of Youth but trainer Todd Pletcher opts to ship him in to the Sham in a somewhat softer spot. But a cross-country flight only a few days prior to the race may weigh on the up and coming colt.

Two-time Sham Stakes winner Bob Baffert sends out #9 Ventana off a fourth placed finish in the San Vincente (gr. II), but the chestnut colt by Toccet doesn't appear to like the synthetic surface. #7 Mr. Hot Stuff comes in off a fast maiden victory at a mile at Santa Anita in his last. He's a full brother to 2006 Sham winner Bob and John, also trained by Eoin Harty, and owned by WinStar Farms LLC. He finished well back of The Pamplemousse in December, but could be turning the corner.
#8 Bourbon Bay looks to translate his stakes placings on turf to the Pro-Ride main track.

The Pick

If The Pamplemousse doesn't fire, I think Smart Bid will win, but I don't expect him to run poorly.

The Bet

Odds will be too low for a straight bet, so I think exotics are the way to play it, though I don't think this is a good betting race.

$5 Exacta #5 with 2, 9

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