With all the excitement around my filly Blazing Reflection and her winning debut I haven't thought too much about handicapping, but with the Travers and Pacific Classic this weekend, what better time to get back in the game. The Travers features the Preakness, Belmont and Haskell winners and could go along way in determining the 3yo champion this year. Sunday's $1m Pacific Classic features the best of the west with Twirling Candy leading the entries.
The 3yo division can be described both as "modest" and highly competitive. Last month's Haskell Invitational was a key race with the top 3 finishers coming back to run again in the Travers Stakes. Video replay below.
Bob Baffert trained Coil ran a big one passing an extremely game Shackleford to win by a neck. I love Shackleford who won the Preakness at 1 3/16 miles but couldn't quite get extra distance of the Kentucky Derby or the Belmont. Today's Travers is at the Derby distance of 10 furlongs so the logic would be that he'll take the lead early, but fade late. I always felt the Saratoga race track favored front runners, and there really isn't another runner with the early pace of Shackleford, so I think its definitely possible he could hold off the stretch runners. Though it won't be my top selection, I will have him in my exactas.
While Coil was able to win the Gr. 1 Haskell, he has run 3 straight 96 Beyers which doesn't exactly set him apart in this field, even from the longshots. He's really done nothing wrong and is certainly capable, but I'm leaning against him.
Belmont winner Ruler On Ice is the 3rd and final Grade I winner in this field that also competed in the Haskell finishing 3rd, 2 1/2 lengths behind Coil. His Belmont score was clearly benefitted by a sloppy racetrack, and unless a preview of Hurricane Irene comes prior to post time, I don't see him finishing first or second.
Belmont runner-up Stay Thirsty is a horse I like alot in this race. He's coming out of an impressive 4 length score in the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes, is 2-2 on the Saratoga main track, and is conditioned by leading trainer Todd Pletcher. He has been installed as the morning line favorite at 5/2, but I could see him starting closer to 3-1 or more as this field is extremely tightly matched. His sire Bernardini was a Travers winner and I think he does the same.
Of the remaining entries, #5 Malibu Glow is intriguing coming off a win at the Spa, and #6 Raison d'Etat, a Juddmonte homebred by AP Indy out of millionaire multi-G1 winner Sightseek has the pedigree to win this, but will be a longshot. If the pace implodes #8 J W Blue will be coming late.
Bets:
#9 Stay Thirsty to win (5/2 or better)
Exacta box #9 with #10 Shackleford
Longshot win bet on #5 Malibu Glow
Click Here to Read More..
Showing posts with label shackleford. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shackleford. Show all posts
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Friday, May 6, 2011
2011 Kentucky Derby Predictions
I think the 2011 Kentucky Derby could be one of the more exciting races in recent memory, but assembles one of the least impressive fields in quite some time. Top contenders and prep winners including Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Toby's Corner, Premier Pegasus, Jaycito, and JP's Gusto all will be on the sidelines the first Saturday in May. Who is starting in the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby is a fairly even group with no standouts. Nick Zito trained Dialed In has been made the morning line favorite at 4-1.
Top Contenders (by post position)
#1 Archarcharch: Would be my top choice were it not for drawing the rail post which could present problems for him as he lacks early speed. Surprisingly the rail has produced the most Derby winners (12) since 1900 of any post, but only 1 in the past 35 years. I like his breeding with Arch being the sire of last year's BC Classic winner Blame, and broodmare sire Woodman is solid. Running style will require a quick pace, which I'm not sure that he'll get, but he closed nicely in both the Southwest and the Arkansas Derby most recently.
#8 Dialed In: Visually impressive Florida Derby victory makes him the favorite, but I don't think he closed as fast as it seems as Shackleford was backing up from quick early fractions, and still managed the place. Scores amongst the top 3 in 4 of the 5 categories I analyze so I have no choice but to put him in the contender mix, although deep down I think he's more likely to encounter a tough trip than not and Zito can add this race to his close calls in the classics in recent years.
#17 Soldat: You have to be willing to excuse the Florida Derby, and believe this son of War Front can get 10 furlongs. I see a potential War Emblem type situation here, who wired a field at 20-1 after getting a clear lead and setting reasonable fractions (47 second 1/2, 1:11 6f pace). He's the biggest benefactor of the scratch of Uncle Mo who was the most accomplished pacesetter and he now sports the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field at 103 (not unlike W.E.). He showed class as a juvenile placing 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf, and solid foundation with 5 starts last year. If the track comes up wet, he'll be my key horse for first, but either way he'll be in my exactas.
Exotic Fillers: (outside shot of upset, but more likely completing the trifecta)
#13 Mucho Macho Man: Finished behind a few of these in prep races, but always seems to fire.
#19 Nehro: Strong closer, but lost by a neck in both the Arkansas Derby and LA Derby his past two starts. Improving colt may just have seconditis.
#14 Shackleford: If he can do what Soldat wants to do, he has a shot. Hung in there nicely in the Florida Derby losing only by a head after leading the whole way with fairly quick fractions. If the track comes up wet he moves forward with Forestry a good sire of mudders. Plus, any horse named after Charles Shackleford has my bet.
Wildcard: #11 Master of Hounds - no prior dirt races, this Aidan O'Brien trainee ships in from Dubai after campaigning in Ireland and Great Britain last year. By Kingmambo, there's reason to believe he'll like the dirt and his pedigree also suggests he can run all day - the question is will it be fast enough. Only has a maiden victory to his credit, but did run 2nd on the synthetic track in the UAE Derby in his last start. With the field lacking much talent, and top jockey Garrett Gomez up, I'll put a few bucks on him to win.
Wagers
Small win bet on #11 Master of Hounds (30-1). I'll put a medium size wager on Soldat and Archarcharch at 10-1 or better, i don't think Dialed In to win offers much value.
Exacta: 8 / 1, 13, 19
1/ 8, 13, 14, 17, 19
17/ 13, 14, 1
14/ 13, 17
Good luck to all. Click Here to Read More..
Top Contenders (by post position)
#1 Archarcharch: Would be my top choice were it not for drawing the rail post which could present problems for him as he lacks early speed. Surprisingly the rail has produced the most Derby winners (12) since 1900 of any post, but only 1 in the past 35 years. I like his breeding with Arch being the sire of last year's BC Classic winner Blame, and broodmare sire Woodman is solid. Running style will require a quick pace, which I'm not sure that he'll get, but he closed nicely in both the Southwest and the Arkansas Derby most recently.
#8 Dialed In: Visually impressive Florida Derby victory makes him the favorite, but I don't think he closed as fast as it seems as Shackleford was backing up from quick early fractions, and still managed the place. Scores amongst the top 3 in 4 of the 5 categories I analyze so I have no choice but to put him in the contender mix, although deep down I think he's more likely to encounter a tough trip than not and Zito can add this race to his close calls in the classics in recent years.
#17 Soldat: You have to be willing to excuse the Florida Derby, and believe this son of War Front can get 10 furlongs. I see a potential War Emblem type situation here, who wired a field at 20-1 after getting a clear lead and setting reasonable fractions (47 second 1/2, 1:11 6f pace). He's the biggest benefactor of the scratch of Uncle Mo who was the most accomplished pacesetter and he now sports the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field at 103 (not unlike W.E.). He showed class as a juvenile placing 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf, and solid foundation with 5 starts last year. If the track comes up wet, he'll be my key horse for first, but either way he'll be in my exactas.
Exotic Fillers: (outside shot of upset, but more likely completing the trifecta)
#13 Mucho Macho Man: Finished behind a few of these in prep races, but always seems to fire.
#19 Nehro: Strong closer, but lost by a neck in both the Arkansas Derby and LA Derby his past two starts. Improving colt may just have seconditis.
#14 Shackleford: If he can do what Soldat wants to do, he has a shot. Hung in there nicely in the Florida Derby losing only by a head after leading the whole way with fairly quick fractions. If the track comes up wet he moves forward with Forestry a good sire of mudders. Plus, any horse named after Charles Shackleford has my bet.
Wildcard: #11 Master of Hounds - no prior dirt races, this Aidan O'Brien trainee ships in from Dubai after campaigning in Ireland and Great Britain last year. By Kingmambo, there's reason to believe he'll like the dirt and his pedigree also suggests he can run all day - the question is will it be fast enough. Only has a maiden victory to his credit, but did run 2nd on the synthetic track in the UAE Derby in his last start. With the field lacking much talent, and top jockey Garrett Gomez up, I'll put a few bucks on him to win.
Wagers
Small win bet on #11 Master of Hounds (30-1). I'll put a medium size wager on Soldat and Archarcharch at 10-1 or better, i don't think Dialed In to win offers much value.
Exacta: 8 / 1, 13, 19
1/ 8, 13, 14, 17, 19
17/ 13, 14, 1
14/ 13, 17
Good luck to all. Click Here to Read More..
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