Preakness 2011: Oh Yeaaaah!

This is about as an easy a wager as there's ever been for a race, assuming there is one and the world doesn't end prior.  If you don't have your money on #9 Mucho Macho Man, given Friday's sad passing of the great Randy "Macho Man" Savage, then you don't understand what a "hunch" bet is.

Besides the name likeness to Mr. Poffo, he also has a decent resume, and has a much better running style for Pimlico than Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.  I also like Shackleford again, he ran a big one at Churchill but couldn't quite carry his speed the full 10 furlongs.  Flashpoint is a longshot pick if he can get away from the field like he did in the Hutcheson (Gr. II). Click Here to Read More..

2011 Kentucky Derby Predictions

I think the 2011 Kentucky Derby could be one of the more exciting races in recent memory, but assembles one of the least impressive fields in quite some time.  Top contenders and prep winners including Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Toby's Corner, Premier Pegasus, Jaycito, and JP's Gusto all will be on the sidelines the first Saturday in May.  Who is starting in the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby is a fairly even group with no standouts.  Nick Zito trained Dialed In has been made the morning line favorite at 4-1.

Top Contenders (by post position)
#1 Archarcharch: Would be my top choice were it not for drawing the rail post which could present problems for him as he lacks early speed.  Surprisingly the rail has produced the most Derby winners (12) since 1900 of any post, but only 1 in the past 35 years.  I like his breeding with Arch being the sire of last year's BC Classic winner Blame, and broodmare sire Woodman is solid.  Running style will require a quick pace, which I'm not sure that he'll get, but he closed nicely in both the Southwest and the Arkansas Derby most recently. 
#8 Dialed In:  Visually impressive Florida Derby victory makes him the favorite, but I don't think he closed as fast as it seems as Shackleford was backing up from quick early fractions, and still managed the place.  Scores amongst the top 3 in 4 of the 5 categories I analyze so I have no choice but to put him in the contender mix, although deep down I think he's more likely to encounter a tough trip than not and Zito can add this race to his close calls in the classics in recent years. 
#17 Soldat:  You have to be willing to excuse the Florida Derby, and believe this son of War Front can get 10 furlongs.  I see a potential War Emblem type situation here, who wired a field at 20-1 after getting a clear lead and setting reasonable fractions (47 second 1/2, 1:11 6f pace).  He's the biggest benefactor of the scratch of Uncle Mo who was the most accomplished pacesetter and he now sports the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field at 103 (not unlike W.E.).  He showed class as a juvenile placing 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf, and solid foundation with 5 starts last year.  If the track comes up wet, he'll be my key horse for first, but either way he'll be in my exactas.

Exotic Fillers: (outside shot of upset, but more likely completing the trifecta)
#13 Mucho Macho Man:  Finished behind a few of these in prep races, but always seems to fire.
#19 Nehro:  Strong closer, but lost by a neck in both the Arkansas Derby and LA Derby his past two starts.  Improving colt may just have seconditis.
#14 Shackleford:  If he can do what Soldat wants to do, he has a shot.  Hung in there nicely in the Florida Derby losing only by a head after leading the whole way with fairly quick fractions.  If the track comes up wet he moves forward with Forestry a good sire of mudders.  Plus, any horse named after Charles Shackleford has my bet.

Wildcard:  #11 Master of Hounds - no prior dirt races, this Aidan O'Brien trainee ships in from Dubai after campaigning in Ireland and Great Britain last year.  By Kingmambo, there's reason to believe he'll like the dirt and his pedigree also suggests he can run all day - the question is will it be fast enough.  Only has a maiden victory to his credit, but did run 2nd on the synthetic track in the UAE Derby in his last start.  With the field lacking much talent, and top jockey Garrett Gomez up, I'll put a few bucks on him to win.

Wagers
Small win bet on #11 Master of Hounds (30-1).  I'll put a medium size wager on Soldat and Archarcharch at 10-1 or better, i don't think Dialed In to win offers much value.

Exacta:  8 / 1, 13, 19
1/ 8, 13, 14, 17, 19
17/ 13, 14, 1
14/ 13, 17

Good luck to all. Click Here to Read More..

Incredible Upside Update 12/26/10

It has been about 4 weeks since a filly I own in partnership named Incredible Upside arrived at the Alameda County Fairgrounds to train with Kent Molinaro.  She's been getting acclimated to her new surroundings and has begun to build a foundation that will be important as she moves toward her racing career.

From what I can tell, she's coming along nicely.  She's definitely lost weight from when we brought her over from Bobby's farm.  But, Kent was saying she hasn't seen a feed tub she didn't like, which is a good sign that she's healthy and growing.  She did a couple mile gallop over a sealed track and appear to be moving nicely.  Given all the rain we've had in the Bay Area over the past few weeks, its good to see the "real dirt" track has held up ok, and hasn't compromised her training. 

I expect her to get her first timed workout in the next few weeks and from there, we just hopes she keeps developing with no setbacks.

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Incredible Upside

One of my goals for Drew Clear was to document the thoroughbred ownership experience. Well, until now I hadn't actually owned any runners for the past few years. This changes with my recent partnership of a 2yo filly with my friend and racing mentor Harry, who originally got me involved in horse ownership. We're bringing another one of my friends into the partnership, a first time owner, but early indications suggest he'll be a longtime owner.

Harry purchased this chestnut filly at the 2009 September Keeneland yearling sale, Hip 2981. She's by million dollar stakes winner and freshman sire Badge of Silver out of the Unaccounted For mare Upside. We named her Incredible Upside for her second dam "Incredible Me" and of course her dam Upside. Upside is the dam to multiple stakes winner Red Lead who is currently still in training. Fortunately for us, Red Lead has won several stakes since the sale last September, and has earned an additional $300k, which will look great on Incredible Upside's pedigree page.

This past Saturday, Harry and I transferred Incredible Upside from Bobby Gonzalez' farm in Brentwood to Pleasanton racetrack where she'll be trained by Kent Molinaro. This is our first opportunity to use Kent as a conditioner, but he comes well recommended by Bobby, who's ridden for him in the past, and says he always has his horses ready to run. Fortunately the shipping went smoothly and she was pleasantly grazing on straw in her stall when we left. At the farm she was in light training, jogging daily with weight, so hopefully she won't need too much time before being fit to race. With no setbacks I would expect her to be ready to race sometime in February.

I plan to get out to the track for some of her workouts and will try to update the blog regularly with her progress.

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Back in Action

It's been over a year since I last posted and I want to apologize to all the loyal reader(s) of Drew Clear (that means you GDR) for taking so long between posts.
Let's see what happened while I was gone: Well for one, Zenyata unretired, won 5 Grade 1's and nearly won the Breeders' Cup Classic a second time in an absolutely thrilling race but ultimately fell a head short of Blame at the wire. Her legacy as arguably the greatest mare in US thoroughbred history has been solidified, and she's done more for horse racing than any other horse since Smarty Jones made a run at the triple Crown at Belmont in 2004. I had the pleasure of witnessing her two Breeders Cup wins, and can say without a doubt, she's the one of the finest horses I've ever seen in person. Last year's win was by far the greatest atmosphere before and after a race that I've experienced.


She's easily win another Eclipse Award, but I truly hope voters give her a much deserved Horse of the Year, despite her narrow BC loss, because relatively speaking she's so far and above the best filly/mare in the US (Goldikova being the best in the world) that when comparing her vs. Blame in that regard, it isn't close. Favorite Trick won Horse of the year in 1997 as a 2yo over contenders Skip Away and Silver Charm. Surely he would not have won a head-to-head race vs. either of those two horses, but he was deemed the best of the year based on how dominant a 2yo colt he was. Hopefully voters this year will take a similar approach.


The aforementioned Goldikova proved she's the best female horse in the world with an unprecidented 3rd straight Breeders Cup Mile. Her "turn of foot" is simply amazing, and I'm proud to have witnessed her prior two Breeders Cup victories at Santa Anita. The fact that her connections have announced that she will race again in 2011 is simply remarkable. I'm sure I'll have my money on her in next year's Mile if she is fortunate enough to make it to the race again.
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