Derby Preps April 4th

Chocolate Candy Looks to Upset in the Santa Anita Derby

Big weekend of racing with the Santa Anita Derby (g. I), Wood Memorial (g. I), and Illinois Derby (g. II) all taking place Saturday. To counteract most pundits East Coast bias, i'm going to focus most of my post on the prep out west, and give picks for the other two contests.

The $750,000 Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby features the top two west coast based 3 year olds in The Pamplemousse and Pioneerof the Nile. The Pamplemousse is a grey colt by Kafwain out of the Rubiano mare Comfort Zone, herself a sibling to five blacktype runners. He's won three straight including two impressive wire-to-wire Grade 3 victories at Santa Anita. In the Sham Stakes he defeated the #7 Take the Points and #5 Mr. Hot Stuff easily, pulling away by 6 lengths and earning the only triple digit Beyer in today's field. Update: The Pamplemousse will be scratched.


Pioneerof the Nile was featured here, and is looking to come from off the pace. Trained by Bob Baffert, Pioneerof the Nile is the only Grade 1 winner in this field. He's done nothing wrong in 2009 winning both graded stakes at Santa Anita that he's entered and has leading jockey Garrett Gomez in the irons again. While his speed figures don't stand out, he's been working great coming into this race and he obviously loves the surface.


Chocolate Candy is an interesting horse for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. He's won two stakes up north including the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby, but that was 7 weeks ago. He's trained regularly up to this and remember he finished only 1 1/2 length behind Pioneer in the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity last December.


#2 Z Day appears to be the speed of the speed, but having only run in sprints he likely won't get the distance.

#6 Feisty Suances also could show speed and he ran well in the Grade 2 San Felipe, but has been defeated by both Pioneer and Chocolate Candy in his last two races.

#3 Unbridled Roman and #8 Cape Truth appear overmatched while #9 Gallant Son hasn't placed in the money in three starts on synthetics.


With The Pamplemousse scratched, Pioneerof the Nile should be heavily favored based on his class, but I'm going to pick King Jerry's Chocolate Candy. He appears to have been pointed to this one all along, and is set up to run a huge one. Hopefully he'll get enough of a pace to run at and outkick Pioneerof the Nile in the stretch.


$750,000 Wood Memorial: #2 I Want Revenge will be a big favorite off of a huge effort in the Gotham Stakes (g. III), but I'm going to pick #5 Imperial Council (Empire Maker/Jaramar Rain). While he finished 8 1/2 lengths back in the Gotham, it was his first route and he got off to a poor start. I Want Revenge is a likely bounce candidate, and I don't expect him to duplicate his effort.


$500,000 Illinois Derby: This is the most wide open of today's 3yo races with 7/2 Musket Man a tepid favorite. He has earned that distinction winning four of his first five races including the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby in his last. I like #6 Perfect Song who I think could be the controlling speed in this race. By Pleasantly Perfect out of a stakes winning dam, Pefect Song wired an optional claiming field by 2 last time at a mile, and comes in off a bullet workout. The Todd Pletcher trained Lord Justice appears to be the likely top challenger.