Derby Preps April 4th

Chocolate Candy Looks to Upset in the Santa Anita Derby

Big weekend of racing with the Santa Anita Derby (g. I), Wood Memorial (g. I), and Illinois Derby (g. II) all taking place Saturday. To counteract most pundits East Coast bias, i'm going to focus most of my post on the prep out west, and give picks for the other two contests.

The $750,000 Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby features the top two west coast based 3 year olds in The Pamplemousse and Pioneerof the Nile. The Pamplemousse is a grey colt by Kafwain out of the Rubiano mare Comfort Zone, herself a sibling to five blacktype runners. He's won three straight including two impressive wire-to-wire Grade 3 victories at Santa Anita. In the Sham Stakes he defeated the #7 Take the Points and #5 Mr. Hot Stuff easily, pulling away by 6 lengths and earning the only triple digit Beyer in today's field. Update: The Pamplemousse will be scratched.


Pioneerof the Nile was featured here, and is looking to come from off the pace. Trained by Bob Baffert, Pioneerof the Nile is the only Grade 1 winner in this field. He's done nothing wrong in 2009 winning both graded stakes at Santa Anita that he's entered and has leading jockey Garrett Gomez in the irons again. While his speed figures don't stand out, he's been working great coming into this race and he obviously loves the surface.


Chocolate Candy is an interesting horse for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. He's won two stakes up north including the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby, but that was 7 weeks ago. He's trained regularly up to this and remember he finished only 1 1/2 length behind Pioneer in the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity last December.


#2 Z Day appears to be the speed of the speed, but having only run in sprints he likely won't get the distance.

#6 Feisty Suances also could show speed and he ran well in the Grade 2 San Felipe, but has been defeated by both Pioneer and Chocolate Candy in his last two races.

#3 Unbridled Roman and #8 Cape Truth appear overmatched while #9 Gallant Son hasn't placed in the money in three starts on synthetics.


With The Pamplemousse scratched, Pioneerof the Nile should be heavily favored based on his class, but I'm going to pick King Jerry's Chocolate Candy. He appears to have been pointed to this one all along, and is set up to run a huge one. Hopefully he'll get enough of a pace to run at and outkick Pioneerof the Nile in the stretch.


$750,000 Wood Memorial: #2 I Want Revenge will be a big favorite off of a huge effort in the Gotham Stakes (g. III), but I'm going to pick #5 Imperial Council (Empire Maker/Jaramar Rain). While he finished 8 1/2 lengths back in the Gotham, it was his first route and he got off to a poor start. I Want Revenge is a likely bounce candidate, and I don't expect him to duplicate his effort.


$500,000 Illinois Derby: This is the most wide open of today's 3yo races with 7/2 Musket Man a tepid favorite. He has earned that distinction winning four of his first five races including the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby in his last. I like #6 Perfect Song who I think could be the controlling speed in this race. By Pleasantly Perfect out of a stakes winning dam, Pefect Song wired an optional claiming field by 2 last time at a mile, and comes in off a bullet workout. The Todd Pletcher trained Lord Justice appears to be the likely top challenger.
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Kentucky Derby Trail - Two Months to Go

There are only two months left before the finest 3 year old colts in the country saddle up for a 10 furlong race toward immortality called the Kentucky Derby. Some horses have emerged from early prep races and some have bowed out from injury, but a slightly clearer picture of the top contenders has materialized in the past 4 weeks.

Now I'm loathe to make a top 10 list, even at this point, because so much can happen over the next 8 1/2 weeks. But I do think its a good idea to look at three of the top contenders before the main prep races are run over the next five weeks, with a focus on their pedigrees.

Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy/Bollinger - Dehere) - Risen Star (gr. III) and Lecomte (gr. III) winner looks to sweep the Fair Grounds prep races March 14th in the $600,000 Louisiana Derby, likely his toughest test so far. His pedigree is excellent, although top A.P. Indy's often peak much later than May of their 3yo season, and he hasn't sired a Derby winner to date. His dam was a Group 1 winner in Australia as was his 2nd dam. He is a 3x4 cross of Secretariat and a good deal of stamina on both sides of his pedigree. He's proven on dirt, but will have to show he can win outside of the bayou.

Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker/Star of Goshen - Lord at War) - 2009 Hall of Fame nominee Bob Baffert's top charge heading into March is pointing toward the Grade II San Felipe at Santa Anita, the track he claimed the Robert B. Lewis Stakes(gr. II) in his last race. One of the few Grade I winners still on the trail, he has never raced on convential dirt having run on turf and synthetics. His sire Empire Maker was a classic winner on dirt and finished runner-up in the Derby and has been successful at stud so far having finished 2008 as the 5th leading 2nd crop sire. His dam showed tremendous promise winning the La Troienne Stakes but had surgery for a displaced palate after being eased in the Hollywood Oaks (gr. II) and never raced again. She has also produced stakes placed Forefathers (Gone West), who was known more for his sprinting. I liked this quote from former trainer Bill Mott in Steve Haskin's blog, "I’ve always loved the horse. I didn’t like him, I loved him. I said that before he ever ran. I just loved the way he worked, and he had a wonderful disposition around the barn."

Quality Road (Elusive Quality/Kobla - Strawberry Road) - Last Saturday Quality Road stalked a fast pace and crushed a tough field in 1:35 flat winning by 4 and 1/4 lengths in only his third career start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II). The romp earned him a 113 Beyer Speed Figure, by far the highest of any 3yo in a route this spring. Like Smarty Jones, Quality Road is by Elusive Quality, a top miler in his day, and generally considered a sire that passes on speed. Speed is certainly plentiful in Quality Road as his 1:16 flat 6 1/2 F debut race last November indicates (101 Beyer). Stamina can be found in his dam's side through damsire Strawberry Road as well as his 2nd damsire Alydar, runner-up in all three triple crown races. Dam Kobla is a full sister to millionaire Ajina who was champion 3yo filly in 1997, and a half sister to Grade III winning Rob's Spirit (Theatrical). Class and stamina shouldn't be an issue, but he's yet to go two turns, and very few horses have won the Derby with such little seasoning.

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Strub Stakes Day at Santa Anita

Stardom Bound in the Juvenile Fillies

Saturday at Santa Anita is Strub Stakes day with several top west coast based 3 year olds in action. We'll take a look at the G1 Las Virgenes with BC Juvenile Fillies winner Stardom Bound (pictured above heading to the post in BC Juvenile Filles) who could be headed to Churchill Downs, either for the Oaks or the Derby. Also on tap is the Robert Lewis Stakes (g. II) which pits the top two finishers from last years Cash Call Futurity (g. I) at Hollywood Park.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (g. III)

Since we're focusing on the 3yo season, we'll start with the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, formerly known as the Santa Catalina Stakes, and ironically, never won by a horse owned by the Lewis'. This race features the first start of the 3 year old campaign for Zayat Stable's Pioneer of the Nile who won the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity in December. Pioneer of the Nile is trained by 3 time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert, who hasn't won in 7 years, and is one of only 3 stakes winners in this race. Baffert admittedly says "there's no urgency" for Pioneer to win this race, but he's looking to get him experience for the Derby. I think that's a key point in this race, as Pioneer is not a standout performer. Bittel Road (1 post) won his first three races of his career including the Grade III Bourbon, but was unplaced in his only non-turf start at Hollywood Park in the aforementioned Cash Call Futurity.

#9 Charlie's Moment is the other stakes winner but it was a listed stakes at Fairplex on dirt, and he's only 1 for 6 on synthetic. This race is filled with one-time winners and the most interesting to me is I Want Revenge trained by Jeff Mullins who finished only a nose behind Pioneer of the Nile in the Cash Call Futurity. Mullins adds blinkers which is a 35% winning angle the past two years for him, and he broke his maiden two back going wire-to-wire. He's getting 7 lbs from the stakes winners and looms large.

#8 Shafted, trained by Mark Casse, is a nicely bred colt by Mineshaft out of Grade 1 winning Twist Afleet who is 2 out of 3 career, all on synthetics. He needs the graded stakes earnings and could be primed to run, third off the layoff.

The Pick

I don't think Pioneer will be cranked and he's not leaps and bounds better than these. I think I Want Revenge stays close to the pace and pulls it out over pacesetter Papa Clem and closer Shafted

The Bet

$1o Win and Place on #4 I Want Revenge

Las Virgenes Stakes (g. I)

First start of the year for champion Stardom Bound. The grey filly should go off at 2/5 and win easily for new owners IEAH Stables who plunked down $5.7 large last November for her services.

Who could give her a run for the money?

I think a few fillies have a chance if SB doesn't fire, and at least should be considered for the exotics. Bob Baffert has two in this race but I think Century Park has the best chance to score. She won the Gr. III Santa Ysabel last time out going wire to wire with Tyler Baze aboard. Baze rides her again and the Baffert/Baze combo is scoring an ROI of $3.82 in 08/09. Haka is a nicely bred filly by Dynaformer who could hit the board finishing ahead of California Oaks winner Will O Way in the Santa Ysabel. Multiple state-bred stakes winner Saucey Evening should get some play, as she's 2-2 at Santa Anita and the 2nd best earner in the field, but leagues behind Stardom Bound.

The Pick

Stardom Bound cruises with Haka and Century Park battling for 2nd.

The Bet

Not a good betting race.

Strub Stakes (g. II)

This race has been won by some of the all-time greats and is the third in the "Strub Series" which also consists of the Malibu (g. I) and San Fernando (g. II). Names like Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, Best Pal, Alysheba, Silver Charm fill the spots on the trophy and this race is often a springboard to the Big Cap next month.

The 2009 edition of the Strub features a single Grade 1 winning horse (@2yo no less) and a collection of mostly turf horses trying to convert their success on the lawn to the synthetic Pro-Ride surface of the main track. While I don't think there are any future superstars here, this is a great betting race with 13 entries and plenty of questions.

Dixie Chatter (#1) is the aforementioned g. I winner having taken the Norfolk in 2007. Richard Mandella conditions this chesnut colt by Dixie Union and seeks to become the only four time winner of this race. He returns to the main track after the past three races on turf winning the Oceanside at Del Mar and placing in the Oak Tree Derby (g. II) last October. He's on the improve, but will need his best to contend in this race. Absolutely would not count Mandella out.

Gio Ponti (#5), Nownownow (#7), and Cowboy Cal (#8) are all coming off graded stakes victories on the local Pro-Ride surface. Gio Ponti took to the track after the Sir Beaufort (g. III) washed out in December. His fast closing style, and his class make him a major threat in here.

Nownownow has run in the prior two Strub series races having won the San Fernando (g. II) last out accounting for Patrick Biancone's only win in 27 starts since returning from suspension. This being his third start since a layoff, I think he could be primed to run, and he won pretty easily at odds of 18-1 three weeks ago.

Cowboy Cal won the Grade II San Pasqual last month and is 5 for 10 lifetime. He'll likely be part of the pace scenario, which should be reasonably contested, so I'm not too high on his chances.

Wistful Tomcat and Slew's Tiznow are the only horses that have reached the triple digit Beyer Speed Figure level in their careers, but both were soundly beaten by Nownownow in the San Fernando.

The Pick

The 4, 8, and 9 should ensure a quick pace, and I like a closer because of it. While Gio Ponti and Nownownow fit the profile and are likely contenders, I like a longshot, the #12 Wesley out of the Mark Hennig barn. Wesley is a Grade II winner on turf and tries the synthetic for the first time. By El Prado (IRE) he shouldn't have too much trouble handling it, and Javier Castellano flies in for the race, which is a good sign. He came from the clouds off a slow pace to just miss in his last, and has shown great turn of foot in prior races as well. If he can stay out of traffic turning for home, I think he'll nip Gio Ponti or Nownownow at the wire.

The Bet

$10 Win/Place on #12 Wesley. $20 total

$2 exacta 5, 12, 7 with 1, 12, 5, 7 . $18 total

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