2009 Kentucky Oaks Preview

The last time Rachel Alexandra entered the
starting gate at odds above even money she was 3rd choice in the Grade II Golden Rod Stakes at 3-1 odds. After blitzing graded stakes winners Sara Louise and Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Dream Empress, she has never run higher than 2/5. In Friday's Grade I Kentucky Oaks she'll likely be odds-on again, facing a field of seven other fillies including multiple graded stakes winner Justwhistledixie.

Rachel Alexandra is the first starter from the Roar mare Lotta Kim who was a stakes winner at three before retiring from an injury. Lotta Kim is one of three stakes winners from the dam Kims Blues (Cure the Blues/Early Decision) who displayed the Rasmussen factor through the 4x5 cross of the blue hen mare Imperatrice. Rachel Alexandra's is from the first crop of Medaglia D'Oro who won the Travers (gr. I) and Jim Dandy (gr. II) as a 3yo before 2nd place finishes in the BC Classic, Belmont and Dubai World Cup, all Grade I's. She enters the race having won four consecutive races including the Grade II Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park by 8 and 3/4 lengths in her last leading every step of the way.
The biggest threat to RA's Oaks commencement could come in the form of Justwhistledixie who has reeled off five straight victories. Justwhistledixie is a half sister to the precocious Chace City (Carson City) winner of the Saratoga Special Breeders Cup (gr. II) at 2. Her dam General Jeanne is a sibling to 6 black type runners, herself a winner of three races. Her last four wins were in stakes, including two grade II's, and she'll look to rate just off Rachel Alexandra and pounce on the leader when the real running starts.
Bob Baffert's Gabby's Golden Girl won the Sunland Park Oaks by 13 lengths to earn a trip to the Oaks. Also by Medaglia D'Oro, she is out of a stakes winning dam who raced in Italy before coming to the US. The Sunland Oaks was her first start on conventional dirt, and her workout this week indicates she should like the Churchill Downs surface as well. She could provide pace pressure to Rachel Alexandra but she'll need her best to win this race.
Flying Spur finished 2nd to Rachel Alexandra in the Fantasy and her best races have come over a sloppy racecourse, which could be the case Friday. Her dam Lakeway was a grade I winner who finished 2nd in this very race in 1994. Her connections are top notch, Bill Mott and Garrett Gomez, but she's only a maiden winner and is still eligible for N1X allowance.
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has three entries in the race and I think the Mary Lou Whitney owned Tweeter offers the best chance to add to his record four victories. While only a maiden winner, Tweeter is a half sister to Ky Oaks winner Bird Town and Belmont winner Birdstone. A bullet workout leading up to the race indicates she could be ready for a suprise.
While Rachel Alexandra is only 2 of 5 at Churchill Downs in her career but she's just at the top of her game right now and I see her winning this one pretty easily. I think Justwhistledixie is the likely runner-up with Tweeter coming in third.