2009 Kentucky Derby Preview

Last week I wrote about the top 4 contenders at the time, but the departure of Quality Road makes this a much more wide open race. While I Want Revenge was named the morning line 3-1 favorite by track handicapper Mike Battaglia, there is no standout in this field, and many intriguing possibilities. Without further ado, a look at all 20 colts in the 135th Kentucky Derby. (Sire/Dam in parentheses).

The Automatic Tosses: These horses have no chance to win and were likely entered so their owners will have good seats from which to view the race.

#8 Mine That Bird (Birdstone/Mining My Own): While a "star" at two in Canada winning three stakes races and a juvenile championship up north, he finished last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita last year. Though the $9,500 yearling purchase is a rags to riches story having earned almost $375,000, the odds of him winning this race are nearly that long.

#9 Join in the Dance (Sky Mesa/Dance Darling): One of three in the race for Derby virgin Todd Pletcher he may give his owners a thrill setting the pace for the first 6 furlongs but he's unlikely to break the schneid for the country's top earning trainer.

#14 Atomic Rain (Smart Strike/Paradise Pond): Could be a hunch play if the skies open up. Maiden winner at 5F, I hope the Hall's enjoy the mint juleps because a trip to the winner's circle is not in the forecast.

#17 Summer Bird (Birdstone/Hong Kong Squall): Did finish 3rd in the Arkansas Derby at 26-1, but with only three starts and a single win under his belt so far in his career, I don't think he has much chance to win this one.

#18 Nowhere to Hide (Vindication/Stirring): Not sure how he qualifies for this field with nary a show placing in graded stakes, but Nick Zito enters this colt anyway and puts blinkers on. This $250k KEESEP yearling is the lowest earner in the field ($100k).

#20 Flying Private (Fusaichi Pegasus/Beautiful Treasure): His daddy won the Derby back in 2000 as the favorite but has been less than stellar as a sire. D. Wayne has his Derby entry, but this colt is too slow to warrant serious consideration and drawing the 20 hole doesn't help.

Really, alot of these could have been entered in a N1X Allowance race on the undercard and it'd have been a nice little race but the owners would rather try for the glory.

The Longshots: This group of horses will be high priced, but there is a slim chance they could pull a Giacomo and shock the world.

#1 West Side Bernie (Bernstein/Time Honored): Started his career with two straight wins including the Grade III Kentucky Cup Juvenile, but hasn't won since. Did post a triple figure Beyer finishing 2nd to race favorite I Want Revenge in the Wood, but will need another step forward to have a shot.

#3 Mr. Hot Stuff (Tiznow/Sweet Damsel): His full bro Colonel John took some money in last year's Derby and could only manage 6th but hung on to win last year's Travers Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga. Obviously bred for the distance, he closed well in his last two races, both 3rd place finishes in graded stakes. This is his first trip outside of California and on dirt; gets top rider John Velazquez for Eoin Harty in this race, and could be coming flying toward the wire. If the pace is hot and the race breaks down, he could spring the upset.

#4 Advice (Chapel Royal/Word o'Wisdom): Winning the Grade II Lexington at Keeneland two weeks ago was impressive, but wheeling back in two weeks is a very tough task. His pedigree screams "speed" and he's 0-1 lifetime on the conventional dirt. I really am not too high on this guy, but his graded victory at least shows he can compete.

#10 Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor/Kelli's Ransom): The longer odds of the two Godolphin entries he beat stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby (gr. II). He will likely be amongst the pace-setters and although his workouts show he'll like the track in Kentucky, unless he can sneak away to a very easy lead, I don't think he'll have enough left in the tank when the real running starts.

#19 Desert Party (Street Cry(Ire)/Sage Cat): Shiekh Mohammed paid a pretty penny, 210 million of them in fact, for this bay colt by Street Cry (Ire). He showed promise early winning the Grade II Sanford over a sealed muddy track before floundering in the Hopeful. If the track comes up wet, this horse moves up in my rankings but the fact that regular jockey Louis Dettori did not fly over for the mount, and the prior jockey in his US races Edgar Prado rides Dunkirk leaves me a little dubious of his chances.

The Live Longshot(s): These three horses are 20-1 on the M/L but have won a major derby prep which warrants them an additional look.

#2 Musket Man (Yonaguska/Fortuesque): Hard to fault a horse that's 5 for 6 and I love horses that know how to win. This guy proves you don't need big bucks to get to the Derby, just a good eye and a little luck. He went for only $15,000 at Keeneland's 2007 yearling sale, and boasts a workmanlike pedigree. That could prevent him from being able to get 10f as his sire was a speedster and his damside doesn't project stamina either. Couldn't handle General Quarters in the SF Davis but rebounded to win two graded stakes since then. Has talent, has won at 9 furlongs, but I just don't think he's quite good enough to win the roses, could get a slice.

#5 Hold Me Back (Giant's Causeway/Restraint): If he is able to translate his synthetic surface ability to the Churchill track, he could pose a big threat. His only dirt run was a disappointing 5th at Aqueduct in the Remsen (gr. II). Trainer Bill Mott has never won the Derby but jockey Kent Desormeaux has three times including last year on Big Brown. He does have the kind of pace profile that wins, and great closing times, so if he can translate his Lane's End run to the Derby, he could be a player. He's gotta prove it before I take him.

#7 Papa Clem (Smart Strike/Miss Houdini): Ran 2nd to two of the races favorites (Pioneer and Friesan Fire) before taking the Arkansas Derby (gr. II) at Oaklawn last race. To me he proved the West Coast horses were to be reckoned with and don't forget he finished ahead of I Want Revenge in the Robert B Lewis (gr. II). Nice pedigree as Smart Strike has become a top sire and Miss Houdini was a grade I winning filly. His style should keep him within a few lengths, but if the track is muddy you have to put him behind Friesan Fire who beat him by 7 1/4 in the slop at the LA Derby. If he's 20-1 on Saturday he's worth a flyer.

The Storybook Endings: Two sentimental favorites, these longshots have a legitimate shot to win, but also sport great background stories.

#11 Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride/Crownette): Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is third on the all-time wins list and has been the dominant trainer in Northern California for 20+ years winning over 5,000 races but has never really established himself in the major Grade 1 races. He had the Derby favorite in '96 but had to scratch Event of the Year due to injury and has 0 wins in 3 Derby starts. He comes in with a live horse in Chocolate Candy who's off the pace style fits this race to a "t". A good foundation at two, this will be his 10th career race, and he gets a jockey upgrade in Mike Smith, whose experience will be an asset. A "dual qualifier" his pedigree boasts the Rasmussen factor through Alanesian, the blue hen mare of Boldnesian, grandsire of Seattle Slew. He's never raced on dirt, but has worked beautifully over the Churchill surface including a 59 1/5 5F earlier this week. He hasn't been able to run past Pioneerof the Nile yet, but the extra furlong may give him the opportunity. I expect him to be running fast late, and if he gets the right pace set-up, Jerry may get the cherry on top of his Hall-of-Fame career. He's my personal favorite pick, having seen him live in the El Camino Real Derby (pictured above).

#12 General Quarters (Sky Mesa/Ecology) : In contrast to Chocolate Candy's trainer Jerry Hollendorfer who's sent horses to the starting gate over 4oo times this year, General Quarters trainer Tom Mc Carthy (great background story from the New York Daily News) has only two starts this year and one win, both with his featured colt. McCarthy claimed this horse for $20,000 last year, the same price he sold for at the Keeneland 2007 yearling auction, and has turned him into a grade I winner. I absolutely love the 4x5 cross of champion Round Table in his pedigree imparting stamina and durability. Churchill specialist Julian Leparoux gets the mount, and if he can repeat his effort from the Grade III SF Davis he stands a chance for the big prize. Don't count this underdog out.

The Fab Four: The four most talented colts in the field, and which combined I think there is a 90% chance the winner will come from this group. In reverse order of preference:

#15 Dunkirk (Unbridled's Song/Secret Status): Regally bred grey colt that didn't debut until January of this year (big no-no), and that's one of his few faults. His other fault is that he's never won a stakes race, but did finish 2nd to superstar Quality Road in the Grade I Florida Derby. What he has done is bust out the top last race Beyer Speed Figure of 108, which two of the past three winners sported. He's also the offspring of a Grade I winning millionaire dam by a top sire in Unbridled's Song. I just think his lack of experience will hurt him in the end and trainer Todd Pletcher will once again fail to get his brass ring.

#13 I Want Revenge (Stephen Got Even/Meguial): Started miserably in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) but finished like a champ to draw clear by 1 1/2 at the wire. His Gotham run was equally impressive scoring by 8 1/2 lenghths and earning the field's top Beyer (113). Oft maligned trainer Jeff Mullins shipped his colt east after failing to beat West Coast division leader Pioneerof the Nile, and its proved to be a great decision. He loves the dirt and handled the Churchill track firing a bullet 4F workout Tuesday. He's been made the morning line favorite, but I think the Wood might have taken alot out of him, he was all out in the win. Additionally he's being guided by a 19 year old jockey in his first Kentucky Derby. I don't like 3-1 odds given those factors so I won't be singling him to win, but he's a very logical candidate.



#6 Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy/Bollinger): His three race graded stakes streak was accomplished at the Fairgrounds, not the normal route to the winner's circle at Churchill. Also he hasn't raced since March 14th, a seven week layoff. What I do like is how he's improved in each of his last three, including a huge run in the slop in the LA Derby crushing Papa Clem who went on to win the Arkansas Derby next out. He moves to the top if the track is sloppy. He's got tactical speed but I don't foresee him sprinting to the lead and getting caught up in a dual. His final quarters aren't spectacular, and he hasn't been past 8.5 panels, but his pedigree is outstanding, and there's no reason to suspect he won't get the distance. Absolutely blitzed 5F last Monday in 57 4/5 showing he's itching to run. I expect him to be heavily bet, and may even end up the favorite, but I'll have him in my exotics on top along with....

#16 Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker/Star of Goshen): Has all the makings of a Derby winner. Dual qualifier, Mr. Prospector sire line, good final quarters, top connections, and most importantly a strong will to win. Four straight wins in fact including two Grade I's, most in the field, and he hasn't lost since the Breeder's Cup Juvenile while getting caught in traffic. The knocks against him are his low Beyer figures, having never earned triple digits, and never running on dirt, only synthetics. Clocker reports indicate he's moving nicely over the Churchill surface in the mornings, and that he shouldn't have trouble handling the dirt, but you never know. Trainer Bob Baffert has great success in this race having won three times, though he hasn't scored since 2002 with War Emblem. What stands out to me is that he's beaten four of his opponents today in preps including favorite I Want Revenge and Papa Clem, both who've won major preps. The top pick.

The Race - I think the race will have an honest but not blazing pace. I favor horses that can come from a stalking position and not get caught too far behind early. Of course navigating traffic is essential in the Derby so those horses with experienced jockeys have an advantage. Pioneer and I Want Revenge should be just behind Friesan Fire and Papa Clem after 6 furlongs moving up on the leaders. Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and Dunkirk will likely be behind them trying to close fast. If the leaders run the first 3/4 miles in 1:10 or lower, expect one of these three to win, if they run slower expect one of the stalkers to take it.

The Pick:
Win: #16 Pioneerof the Nile
Place: #6 Friesan Fire
Show: #11 Chocolate Candy

The Bet: $20 Win #16. $20 Show #11.
$5 Exacta: (6, 16) with (6, 11, 12, 15, 16)
$2 Trifecta: (16 with 3, 6, 11 with 3, 5, 6, 11, 12, 15)

Total wagered: $110

Good Luck All and hope for a safe race this year.