Derby Preps April 4th

Chocolate Candy Looks to Upset in the Santa Anita Derby

Big weekend of racing with the Santa Anita Derby (g. I), Wood Memorial (g. I), and Illinois Derby (g. II) all taking place Saturday. To counteract most pundits East Coast bias, i'm going to focus most of my post on the prep out west, and give picks for the other two contests.

The $750,000 Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby features the top two west coast based 3 year olds in The Pamplemousse and Pioneerof the Nile. The Pamplemousse is a grey colt by Kafwain out of the Rubiano mare Comfort Zone, herself a sibling to five blacktype runners. He's won three straight including two impressive wire-to-wire Grade 3 victories at Santa Anita. In the Sham Stakes he defeated the #7 Take the Points and #5 Mr. Hot Stuff easily, pulling away by 6 lengths and earning the only triple digit Beyer in today's field. Update: The Pamplemousse will be scratched.


Pioneerof the Nile was featured here, and is looking to come from off the pace. Trained by Bob Baffert, Pioneerof the Nile is the only Grade 1 winner in this field. He's done nothing wrong in 2009 winning both graded stakes at Santa Anita that he's entered and has leading jockey Garrett Gomez in the irons again. While his speed figures don't stand out, he's been working great coming into this race and he obviously loves the surface.


Chocolate Candy is an interesting horse for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. He's won two stakes up north including the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby, but that was 7 weeks ago. He's trained regularly up to this and remember he finished only 1 1/2 length behind Pioneer in the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity last December.


#2 Z Day appears to be the speed of the speed, but having only run in sprints he likely won't get the distance.

#6 Feisty Suances also could show speed and he ran well in the Grade 2 San Felipe, but has been defeated by both Pioneer and Chocolate Candy in his last two races.

#3 Unbridled Roman and #8 Cape Truth appear overmatched while #9 Gallant Son hasn't placed in the money in three starts on synthetics.


With The Pamplemousse scratched, Pioneerof the Nile should be heavily favored based on his class, but I'm going to pick King Jerry's Chocolate Candy. He appears to have been pointed to this one all along, and is set up to run a huge one. Hopefully he'll get enough of a pace to run at and outkick Pioneerof the Nile in the stretch.


$750,000 Wood Memorial: #2 I Want Revenge will be a big favorite off of a huge effort in the Gotham Stakes (g. III), but I'm going to pick #5 Imperial Council (Empire Maker/Jaramar Rain). While he finished 8 1/2 lengths back in the Gotham, it was his first route and he got off to a poor start. I Want Revenge is a likely bounce candidate, and I don't expect him to duplicate his effort.


$500,000 Illinois Derby: This is the most wide open of today's 3yo races with 7/2 Musket Man a tepid favorite. He has earned that distinction winning four of his first five races including the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby in his last. I like #6 Perfect Song who I think could be the controlling speed in this race. By Pleasantly Perfect out of a stakes winning dam, Pefect Song wired an optional claiming field by 2 last time at a mile, and comes in off a bullet workout. The Todd Pletcher trained Lord Justice appears to be the likely top challenger.
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El Camino Real Derby Re-cap

Chocolate Candy Hangs on to win El Camino Real Derby

Odds-on favorite Chocolate Candy managed to hold off Massone to win the El Camino Real Derby (g. III) in a solid if not spectacular performance.

Here's the DRF chart

Aquicksting set a slow pace into a strong headwind covering the first 1/2 mile in 49 seconds. Chocolate Candy started his run going into the far turn and zipped the next 1/4 in only 23 seconds with 2nd choice Axel Foley only a head behind. Barn mate Rendezvous rounded the field on the outside and looked poised to strike the front, but flattened out before getting to Chocolate Candy in the stretch. Massone, who trailed the field for the first 6 furlongs, was closing fast only a length behind as they reached the 1/16th pole. The two colts would duel down the lane but 8-1 shot Massone would have to settle for 2nd as the classier colt would not be denied. Chocolate Candy paid $3.00 to win.

Chocolate Candy notched his 3rd stakes victory, and 2nd in a row at Golden Gate, for owner and breeder the Craig family. Out of the Seattle Slew mare Crownette, Chocolate Candy is by Candy Ride (ARG) who the Craig's imported from Argentina and campaigned to Grade 1 success in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in 2003.

Baze and Hollendorfer have now connected for victory in this race 3 of the past 4 years, with the prior two horses (Cause to Believe and Bwana Bull) going on to race in the Kentucky Derby. Jockey Russell Baze thinks he may be in better position to win than the prior two, who finished up the track on Derby day. "I think he has a little more room to improve than those horses at this point." Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is targeting the Santa Anita Derby (g. I) for Chocolate Candy in April before hopefully going to Kentucky to contend for the roses in May.

Photo Slideshow from El Camino Real Day
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El Camino Real Derby (g. III) Preview

Not a big weekend of Kentucky Derby preps, but there is one in my backyard on Saturday, the 1 1/8 mile El Camino Real Derby (g. III) for a $200,000 purse at Golden Gate Fields in Northern California. This is a race that had been held at Bay Meadows Race Course at 8.5 furlongs but after closing its doors last August, it has been moved back to Golden Gate and has been extended and additional 1/2 furlong. I think the extra ground and the switch to the Tapeta surface could play a big role in the outcome of this race.

The primary contender in this Valentine's Day race is the coincidentally named Chocolate Candy, who hails from the Jerry Hollendorfer barn and will be ridden by jockey Russell Baze. Hollendorfer (4 wins) and Baze (5 wins) hold the record for most wins by a trainer and jockey respectively, and have teamed up 3 times to win this race. Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride/Crownette-Seattle Slew) drew clear of Axel Foley and Merus Miami in the California Derby last out at Golden Gate and has only lost in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity to Pioneerof the Nile, California's leading 3 year old, in the past 4 races. He's worked well coming into the race, a 47 second 4f bullet Tuesday, and should be primed for another big effort.

Of the two runners up in the Cal Derby, I think Axel Foley (Officer/Morganza-Clever Trick) provides the biggest threat to Chocolate Candy. (In fact Merus Miami is a scratch). He made a huge move around the far turn in his last, making up over 5 lengths before falling short. Trainer Doug O'Neill returns to Golden Gate with Michael Baze, who rode Axel Foley in his US debut, and a sharp 6f workout into his charge. My biggest question is stamina, which despite his closing style, I don't think he wants 9 furlongs with his pedigree.

A horse I really like is another from the Hollendorfer barn the #6 Rendezvous. He's 2 for 2 over this Tapeta track, and is working on a 3 race winning streak. By Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop, Rendezvous should have no problem with the distance, and despite his lack of prior class, he's an up and comer with a good closing kick. I think veteran jockey Bobby Gonzalez may keep him a little closer to the pace and get first jump on the sprint for home.

The Pick

On paper, Chocolate Candy looks very solid having beaten three of his rivals already. But he's been in training continuously since last July and I think he's due for a mis-step. If he doesn't fire, I think Axel Foley stands a good chance, but its the Dorf's other entry, Rendezvous, that I think gets it done. Should be a tight race.

The Bet

$10 Win/Place on #5 Rendezvous @ 3/1 or better
$2 Trifecta - 5,7 with 3,5,7 with 3,5,7

$28 bet total

If the weather holds out, I intend to go to the race and take some photos and give a full re-cap.

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