2011 Kentucky Derby Predictions

I think the 2011 Kentucky Derby could be one of the more exciting races in recent memory, but assembles one of the least impressive fields in quite some time.  Top contenders and prep winners including Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Toby's Corner, Premier Pegasus, Jaycito, and JP's Gusto all will be on the sidelines the first Saturday in May.  Who is starting in the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby is a fairly even group with no standouts.  Nick Zito trained Dialed In has been made the morning line favorite at 4-1.

Top Contenders (by post position)
#1 Archarcharch: Would be my top choice were it not for drawing the rail post which could present problems for him as he lacks early speed.  Surprisingly the rail has produced the most Derby winners (12) since 1900 of any post, but only 1 in the past 35 years.  I like his breeding with Arch being the sire of last year's BC Classic winner Blame, and broodmare sire Woodman is solid.  Running style will require a quick pace, which I'm not sure that he'll get, but he closed nicely in both the Southwest and the Arkansas Derby most recently. 
#8 Dialed In:  Visually impressive Florida Derby victory makes him the favorite, but I don't think he closed as fast as it seems as Shackleford was backing up from quick early fractions, and still managed the place.  Scores amongst the top 3 in 4 of the 5 categories I analyze so I have no choice but to put him in the contender mix, although deep down I think he's more likely to encounter a tough trip than not and Zito can add this race to his close calls in the classics in recent years. 
#17 Soldat:  You have to be willing to excuse the Florida Derby, and believe this son of War Front can get 10 furlongs.  I see a potential War Emblem type situation here, who wired a field at 20-1 after getting a clear lead and setting reasonable fractions (47 second 1/2, 1:11 6f pace).  He's the biggest benefactor of the scratch of Uncle Mo who was the most accomplished pacesetter and he now sports the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field at 103 (not unlike W.E.).  He showed class as a juvenile placing 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf, and solid foundation with 5 starts last year.  If the track comes up wet, he'll be my key horse for first, but either way he'll be in my exactas.

Exotic Fillers: (outside shot of upset, but more likely completing the trifecta)
#13 Mucho Macho Man:  Finished behind a few of these in prep races, but always seems to fire.
#19 Nehro:  Strong closer, but lost by a neck in both the Arkansas Derby and LA Derby his past two starts.  Improving colt may just have seconditis.
#14 Shackleford:  If he can do what Soldat wants to do, he has a shot.  Hung in there nicely in the Florida Derby losing only by a head after leading the whole way with fairly quick fractions.  If the track comes up wet he moves forward with Forestry a good sire of mudders.  Plus, any horse named after Charles Shackleford has my bet.

Wildcard:  #11 Master of Hounds - no prior dirt races, this Aidan O'Brien trainee ships in from Dubai after campaigning in Ireland and Great Britain last year.  By Kingmambo, there's reason to believe he'll like the dirt and his pedigree also suggests he can run all day - the question is will it be fast enough.  Only has a maiden victory to his credit, but did run 2nd on the synthetic track in the UAE Derby in his last start.  With the field lacking much talent, and top jockey Garrett Gomez up, I'll put a few bucks on him to win.

Wagers
Small win bet on #11 Master of Hounds (30-1).  I'll put a medium size wager on Soldat and Archarcharch at 10-1 or better, i don't think Dialed In to win offers much value.

Exacta:  8 / 1, 13, 19
1/ 8, 13, 14, 17, 19
17/ 13, 14, 1
14/ 13, 17

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2009 Kentucky Derby Preview

Last week I wrote about the top 4 contenders at the time, but the departure of Quality Road makes this a much more wide open race. While I Want Revenge was named the morning line 3-1 favorite by track handicapper Mike Battaglia, there is no standout in this field, and many intriguing possibilities. Without further ado, a look at all 20 colts in the 135th Kentucky Derby. (Sire/Dam in parentheses).

The Automatic Tosses: These horses have no chance to win and were likely entered so their owners will have good seats from which to view the race.

#8 Mine That Bird (Birdstone/Mining My Own): While a "star" at two in Canada winning three stakes races and a juvenile championship up north, he finished last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita last year. Though the $9,500 yearling purchase is a rags to riches story having earned almost $375,000, the odds of him winning this race are nearly that long.

#9 Join in the Dance (Sky Mesa/Dance Darling): One of three in the race for Derby virgin Todd Pletcher he may give his owners a thrill setting the pace for the first 6 furlongs but he's unlikely to break the schneid for the country's top earning trainer.

#14 Atomic Rain (Smart Strike/Paradise Pond): Could be a hunch play if the skies open up. Maiden winner at 5F, I hope the Hall's enjoy the mint juleps because a trip to the winner's circle is not in the forecast.

#17 Summer Bird (Birdstone/Hong Kong Squall): Did finish 3rd in the Arkansas Derby at 26-1, but with only three starts and a single win under his belt so far in his career, I don't think he has much chance to win this one.

#18 Nowhere to Hide (Vindication/Stirring): Not sure how he qualifies for this field with nary a show placing in graded stakes, but Nick Zito enters this colt anyway and puts blinkers on. This $250k KEESEP yearling is the lowest earner in the field ($100k).

#20 Flying Private (Fusaichi Pegasus/Beautiful Treasure): His daddy won the Derby back in 2000 as the favorite but has been less than stellar as a sire. D. Wayne has his Derby entry, but this colt is too slow to warrant serious consideration and drawing the 20 hole doesn't help.

Really, alot of these could have been entered in a N1X Allowance race on the undercard and it'd have been a nice little race but the owners would rather try for the glory.

The Longshots: This group of horses will be high priced, but there is a slim chance they could pull a Giacomo and shock the world.

#1 West Side Bernie (Bernstein/Time Honored): Started his career with two straight wins including the Grade III Kentucky Cup Juvenile, but hasn't won since. Did post a triple figure Beyer finishing 2nd to race favorite I Want Revenge in the Wood, but will need another step forward to have a shot.

#3 Mr. Hot Stuff (Tiznow/Sweet Damsel): His full bro Colonel John took some money in last year's Derby and could only manage 6th but hung on to win last year's Travers Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga. Obviously bred for the distance, he closed well in his last two races, both 3rd place finishes in graded stakes. This is his first trip outside of California and on dirt; gets top rider John Velazquez for Eoin Harty in this race, and could be coming flying toward the wire. If the pace is hot and the race breaks down, he could spring the upset.

#4 Advice (Chapel Royal/Word o'Wisdom): Winning the Grade II Lexington at Keeneland two weeks ago was impressive, but wheeling back in two weeks is a very tough task. His pedigree screams "speed" and he's 0-1 lifetime on the conventional dirt. I really am not too high on this guy, but his graded victory at least shows he can compete.

#10 Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor/Kelli's Ransom): The longer odds of the two Godolphin entries he beat stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby (gr. II). He will likely be amongst the pace-setters and although his workouts show he'll like the track in Kentucky, unless he can sneak away to a very easy lead, I don't think he'll have enough left in the tank when the real running starts.

#19 Desert Party (Street Cry(Ire)/Sage Cat): Shiekh Mohammed paid a pretty penny, 210 million of them in fact, for this bay colt by Street Cry (Ire). He showed promise early winning the Grade II Sanford over a sealed muddy track before floundering in the Hopeful. If the track comes up wet, this horse moves up in my rankings but the fact that regular jockey Louis Dettori did not fly over for the mount, and the prior jockey in his US races Edgar Prado rides Dunkirk leaves me a little dubious of his chances.

The Live Longshot(s): These three horses are 20-1 on the M/L but have won a major derby prep which warrants them an additional look.

#2 Musket Man (Yonaguska/Fortuesque): Hard to fault a horse that's 5 for 6 and I love horses that know how to win. This guy proves you don't need big bucks to get to the Derby, just a good eye and a little luck. He went for only $15,000 at Keeneland's 2007 yearling sale, and boasts a workmanlike pedigree. That could prevent him from being able to get 10f as his sire was a speedster and his damside doesn't project stamina either. Couldn't handle General Quarters in the SF Davis but rebounded to win two graded stakes since then. Has talent, has won at 9 furlongs, but I just don't think he's quite good enough to win the roses, could get a slice.

#5 Hold Me Back (Giant's Causeway/Restraint): If he is able to translate his synthetic surface ability to the Churchill track, he could pose a big threat. His only dirt run was a disappointing 5th at Aqueduct in the Remsen (gr. II). Trainer Bill Mott has never won the Derby but jockey Kent Desormeaux has three times including last year on Big Brown. He does have the kind of pace profile that wins, and great closing times, so if he can translate his Lane's End run to the Derby, he could be a player. He's gotta prove it before I take him.

#7 Papa Clem (Smart Strike/Miss Houdini): Ran 2nd to two of the races favorites (Pioneer and Friesan Fire) before taking the Arkansas Derby (gr. II) at Oaklawn last race. To me he proved the West Coast horses were to be reckoned with and don't forget he finished ahead of I Want Revenge in the Robert B Lewis (gr. II). Nice pedigree as Smart Strike has become a top sire and Miss Houdini was a grade I winning filly. His style should keep him within a few lengths, but if the track is muddy you have to put him behind Friesan Fire who beat him by 7 1/4 in the slop at the LA Derby. If he's 20-1 on Saturday he's worth a flyer.

The Storybook Endings: Two sentimental favorites, these longshots have a legitimate shot to win, but also sport great background stories.

#11 Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride/Crownette): Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is third on the all-time wins list and has been the dominant trainer in Northern California for 20+ years winning over 5,000 races but has never really established himself in the major Grade 1 races. He had the Derby favorite in '96 but had to scratch Event of the Year due to injury and has 0 wins in 3 Derby starts. He comes in with a live horse in Chocolate Candy who's off the pace style fits this race to a "t". A good foundation at two, this will be his 10th career race, and he gets a jockey upgrade in Mike Smith, whose experience will be an asset. A "dual qualifier" his pedigree boasts the Rasmussen factor through Alanesian, the blue hen mare of Boldnesian, grandsire of Seattle Slew. He's never raced on dirt, but has worked beautifully over the Churchill surface including a 59 1/5 5F earlier this week. He hasn't been able to run past Pioneerof the Nile yet, but the extra furlong may give him the opportunity. I expect him to be running fast late, and if he gets the right pace set-up, Jerry may get the cherry on top of his Hall-of-Fame career. He's my personal favorite pick, having seen him live in the El Camino Real Derby (pictured above).

#12 General Quarters (Sky Mesa/Ecology) : In contrast to Chocolate Candy's trainer Jerry Hollendorfer who's sent horses to the starting gate over 4oo times this year, General Quarters trainer Tom Mc Carthy (great background story from the New York Daily News) has only two starts this year and one win, both with his featured colt. McCarthy claimed this horse for $20,000 last year, the same price he sold for at the Keeneland 2007 yearling auction, and has turned him into a grade I winner. I absolutely love the 4x5 cross of champion Round Table in his pedigree imparting stamina and durability. Churchill specialist Julian Leparoux gets the mount, and if he can repeat his effort from the Grade III SF Davis he stands a chance for the big prize. Don't count this underdog out.

The Fab Four: The four most talented colts in the field, and which combined I think there is a 90% chance the winner will come from this group. In reverse order of preference:

#15 Dunkirk (Unbridled's Song/Secret Status): Regally bred grey colt that didn't debut until January of this year (big no-no), and that's one of his few faults. His other fault is that he's never won a stakes race, but did finish 2nd to superstar Quality Road in the Grade I Florida Derby. What he has done is bust out the top last race Beyer Speed Figure of 108, which two of the past three winners sported. He's also the offspring of a Grade I winning millionaire dam by a top sire in Unbridled's Song. I just think his lack of experience will hurt him in the end and trainer Todd Pletcher will once again fail to get his brass ring.

#13 I Want Revenge (Stephen Got Even/Meguial): Started miserably in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) but finished like a champ to draw clear by 1 1/2 at the wire. His Gotham run was equally impressive scoring by 8 1/2 lenghths and earning the field's top Beyer (113). Oft maligned trainer Jeff Mullins shipped his colt east after failing to beat West Coast division leader Pioneerof the Nile, and its proved to be a great decision. He loves the dirt and handled the Churchill track firing a bullet 4F workout Tuesday. He's been made the morning line favorite, but I think the Wood might have taken alot out of him, he was all out in the win. Additionally he's being guided by a 19 year old jockey in his first Kentucky Derby. I don't like 3-1 odds given those factors so I won't be singling him to win, but he's a very logical candidate.



#6 Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy/Bollinger): His three race graded stakes streak was accomplished at the Fairgrounds, not the normal route to the winner's circle at Churchill. Also he hasn't raced since March 14th, a seven week layoff. What I do like is how he's improved in each of his last three, including a huge run in the slop in the LA Derby crushing Papa Clem who went on to win the Arkansas Derby next out. He moves to the top if the track is sloppy. He's got tactical speed but I don't foresee him sprinting to the lead and getting caught up in a dual. His final quarters aren't spectacular, and he hasn't been past 8.5 panels, but his pedigree is outstanding, and there's no reason to suspect he won't get the distance. Absolutely blitzed 5F last Monday in 57 4/5 showing he's itching to run. I expect him to be heavily bet, and may even end up the favorite, but I'll have him in my exotics on top along with....

#16 Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker/Star of Goshen): Has all the makings of a Derby winner. Dual qualifier, Mr. Prospector sire line, good final quarters, top connections, and most importantly a strong will to win. Four straight wins in fact including two Grade I's, most in the field, and he hasn't lost since the Breeder's Cup Juvenile while getting caught in traffic. The knocks against him are his low Beyer figures, having never earned triple digits, and never running on dirt, only synthetics. Clocker reports indicate he's moving nicely over the Churchill surface in the mornings, and that he shouldn't have trouble handling the dirt, but you never know. Trainer Bob Baffert has great success in this race having won three times, though he hasn't scored since 2002 with War Emblem. What stands out to me is that he's beaten four of his opponents today in preps including favorite I Want Revenge and Papa Clem, both who've won major preps. The top pick.

The Race - I think the race will have an honest but not blazing pace. I favor horses that can come from a stalking position and not get caught too far behind early. Of course navigating traffic is essential in the Derby so those horses with experienced jockeys have an advantage. Pioneer and I Want Revenge should be just behind Friesan Fire and Papa Clem after 6 furlongs moving up on the leaders. Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and Dunkirk will likely be behind them trying to close fast. If the leaders run the first 3/4 miles in 1:10 or lower, expect one of these three to win, if they run slower expect one of the stalkers to take it.

The Pick:
Win: #16 Pioneerof the Nile
Place: #6 Friesan Fire
Show: #11 Chocolate Candy

The Bet: $20 Win #16. $20 Show #11.
$5 Exacta: (6, 16) with (6, 11, 12, 15, 16)
$2 Trifecta: (16 with 3, 6, 11 with 3, 5, 6, 11, 12, 15)

Total wagered: $110

Good Luck All and hope for a safe race this year.

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Less than a week until Derby Day

The prep races are done and the field is taking shape for the 135th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 2nd. A quick look at the Graded Earnings list reveals that all of the contenders with any real shot at winning the run for the roses are in the top 20.

Two months ago I chronicled 3 horses I thought would be top contenders next Saturday, and in fact all 3 won their prep races with Pioneerof the Nile taking the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), Friesan Fire winning the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and Quality Road winning the Florida Derby (gr. I).

Friesan Fire attempts to win the Derby off of a 7 week layoff, not the most common path, but his LA Derby win was flattered by Papa Clem's win in the Arkansas Derby over Old Fashioned. Trainer Larry Jones has had recent success in the Derby with the last two second place finishers, Hard Spun and the ill-fated Eight Belles. He's been working very well and has the pedigree to be a serious threat but the obviuos question is can he win outside of the Fairgrounds.

All Pioneerof the Nile has done is win 4 in a row including two Grade 1's for recently voted in Hall-of-Fame trainer Bob Baffert, no stranger to the winner's circle at Churchill Downs. But he's only won his races on synthetics. He hasn't posted a Beyer Speed figure over 100. The last Santa Anita Derby winner to win the Kentucky Derby was Real Quiet back in 1998, also for Baffert. One key thing on his side is jockey Garrett Gomez, who also rides Dunkirk, has selected Pioneer as his Derby mount, which is nothing to sneeze at given his success this year and knack for winning big races.

Quality Road could be the post-time favorite on Saturday but has been bothered by quarter cracks on his hooves the past few weeks. His Florida Derby win was quite impressive as he set the 9 furlong track record at Gulfstream while dusting top contender Dunkirk in the process. He's probably the fastest horse in the field, but is also inexperienced having only raced four times. The result of his 5F breeze on Monday and how the hoof holds up will be key in whether he starts in the Derby.

I Want Revenge looms the largest of the other 17 contenders by virtue of his two straight stakes wins at Aqueduct in tremendous fashion after beginning his career in California winning only once on the synthetics. He blitzed the field in the Gotham (gr. III), and rallied from last place to take the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I). I Want Revenge is by Stephen Got Even, best known for siring 2yo champion Stevie Wonderboy, out of the Argentine bred Roy mare Meguial. Meguial was Group 1 placed in her native country with I Want Revenge being her second foal.

The next tier of contenders includes the wiseguy choice- Dunkirk, a pair of Dubai imports - Regal Ransom and Desert Party, and major prep winners General Quarters, Musket Man and Papa Clem. I'll take a more detailed look at these horses and the other starters in subsequent posts.

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Kentucky Derby Trail - Two Months to Go

There are only two months left before the finest 3 year old colts in the country saddle up for a 10 furlong race toward immortality called the Kentucky Derby. Some horses have emerged from early prep races and some have bowed out from injury, but a slightly clearer picture of the top contenders has materialized in the past 4 weeks.

Now I'm loathe to make a top 10 list, even at this point, because so much can happen over the next 8 1/2 weeks. But I do think its a good idea to look at three of the top contenders before the main prep races are run over the next five weeks, with a focus on their pedigrees.

Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy/Bollinger - Dehere) - Risen Star (gr. III) and Lecomte (gr. III) winner looks to sweep the Fair Grounds prep races March 14th in the $600,000 Louisiana Derby, likely his toughest test so far. His pedigree is excellent, although top A.P. Indy's often peak much later than May of their 3yo season, and he hasn't sired a Derby winner to date. His dam was a Group 1 winner in Australia as was his 2nd dam. He is a 3x4 cross of Secretariat and a good deal of stamina on both sides of his pedigree. He's proven on dirt, but will have to show he can win outside of the bayou.

Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker/Star of Goshen - Lord at War) - 2009 Hall of Fame nominee Bob Baffert's top charge heading into March is pointing toward the Grade II San Felipe at Santa Anita, the track he claimed the Robert B. Lewis Stakes(gr. II) in his last race. One of the few Grade I winners still on the trail, he has never raced on convential dirt having run on turf and synthetics. His sire Empire Maker was a classic winner on dirt and finished runner-up in the Derby and has been successful at stud so far having finished 2008 as the 5th leading 2nd crop sire. His dam showed tremendous promise winning the La Troienne Stakes but had surgery for a displaced palate after being eased in the Hollywood Oaks (gr. II) and never raced again. She has also produced stakes placed Forefathers (Gone West), who was known more for his sprinting. I liked this quote from former trainer Bill Mott in Steve Haskin's blog, "I’ve always loved the horse. I didn’t like him, I loved him. I said that before he ever ran. I just loved the way he worked, and he had a wonderful disposition around the barn."

Quality Road (Elusive Quality/Kobla - Strawberry Road) - Last Saturday Quality Road stalked a fast pace and crushed a tough field in 1:35 flat winning by 4 and 1/4 lengths in only his third career start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II). The romp earned him a 113 Beyer Speed Figure, by far the highest of any 3yo in a route this spring. Like Smarty Jones, Quality Road is by Elusive Quality, a top miler in his day, and generally considered a sire that passes on speed. Speed is certainly plentiful in Quality Road as his 1:16 flat 6 1/2 F debut race last November indicates (101 Beyer). Stamina can be found in his dam's side through damsire Strawberry Road as well as his 2nd damsire Alydar, runner-up in all three triple crown races. Dam Kobla is a full sister to millionaire Ajina who was champion 3yo filly in 1997, and a half sister to Grade III winning Rob's Spirit (Theatrical). Class and stamina shouldn't be an issue, but he's yet to go two turns, and very few horses have won the Derby with such little seasoning.

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El Camino Real Derby (g. III) Preview

Not a big weekend of Kentucky Derby preps, but there is one in my backyard on Saturday, the 1 1/8 mile El Camino Real Derby (g. III) for a $200,000 purse at Golden Gate Fields in Northern California. This is a race that had been held at Bay Meadows Race Course at 8.5 furlongs but after closing its doors last August, it has been moved back to Golden Gate and has been extended and additional 1/2 furlong. I think the extra ground and the switch to the Tapeta surface could play a big role in the outcome of this race.

The primary contender in this Valentine's Day race is the coincidentally named Chocolate Candy, who hails from the Jerry Hollendorfer barn and will be ridden by jockey Russell Baze. Hollendorfer (4 wins) and Baze (5 wins) hold the record for most wins by a trainer and jockey respectively, and have teamed up 3 times to win this race. Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride/Crownette-Seattle Slew) drew clear of Axel Foley and Merus Miami in the California Derby last out at Golden Gate and has only lost in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity to Pioneerof the Nile, California's leading 3 year old, in the past 4 races. He's worked well coming into the race, a 47 second 4f bullet Tuesday, and should be primed for another big effort.

Of the two runners up in the Cal Derby, I think Axel Foley (Officer/Morganza-Clever Trick) provides the biggest threat to Chocolate Candy. (In fact Merus Miami is a scratch). He made a huge move around the far turn in his last, making up over 5 lengths before falling short. Trainer Doug O'Neill returns to Golden Gate with Michael Baze, who rode Axel Foley in his US debut, and a sharp 6f workout into his charge. My biggest question is stamina, which despite his closing style, I don't think he wants 9 furlongs with his pedigree.

A horse I really like is another from the Hollendorfer barn the #6 Rendezvous. He's 2 for 2 over this Tapeta track, and is working on a 3 race winning streak. By Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop, Rendezvous should have no problem with the distance, and despite his lack of prior class, he's an up and comer with a good closing kick. I think veteran jockey Bobby Gonzalez may keep him a little closer to the pace and get first jump on the sprint for home.

The Pick

On paper, Chocolate Candy looks very solid having beaten three of his rivals already. But he's been in training continuously since last July and I think he's due for a mis-step. If he doesn't fire, I think Axel Foley stands a good chance, but its the Dorf's other entry, Rendezvous, that I think gets it done. Should be a tight race.

The Bet

$10 Win/Place on #5 Rendezvous @ 3/1 or better
$2 Trifecta - 5,7 with 3,5,7 with 3,5,7

$28 bet total

If the weather holds out, I intend to go to the race and take some photos and give a full re-cap.

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Stardom Bound to Face the Boys?

At the post-race interview on HRTV Saturday with Michael Iavarone, co-president of IEAH Stables, it was revealed that prized filly Stardom Bound, whom they paid $5.7 million for at auction in November of last year, would next challenge the colts in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4th. The Santa Anita Derby is the premier west coast prep race for 3 year olds who have their sights set on racing in the Kentucky Derby (g. I).

"That's what the racing fans want," Iavarone said. "I see no reason why she can't do it."

And Iavarone has a point. Stardom Bound has been impressive winning 4 straight Grade 1 events for fillies including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies this past October at Santa Anita.




She has dominated her rivals, racing exclusively on the west coast, and on synthetic tracks.

Iavarone hopes she'll emulate D. Wayne Lukas trained filly Winning Colors, who was the most recent, and only the third filly to win the Santa Anita Derby in 1988. She went on to win the Kentucky Derby, becoming only the 3rd filly in history to achieve that feat as well. She was named Champion 3-year old filly of that year, and inducted into Racing's Hall of Fame.

But success in this race is an exception and not a rule. The most recent high profile filly to test the boys out west was Sweet Catomine (Storm Cat/Sweet Life - Kris S.) in 2005. She came in with similar credentials, and was made the favorite in the race, but could only manage a 5th place finish. She would never race again. There was controversy surrounding Sweet Catomine's SA Derby run as it was revealed she had bled in a workout prior to the race and may not have been at her best, but this information was not released leading up to the race. In any event, the point is that for a filly to take on colts this early in their careers is very difficult, and not a decision to be taken lightly as the effects can be life changing.

History is history but what really matters is the current situation. Unlike Sweet Catomine, Stardom Bound may skip the Santa Anita Oaks (g. I) in March and train up to the race. Trainer Bobby Frankel is not one to send his fillies out against males unless he thinks they have a good shot at victory, as evidenced recently by his handling of Ventura who finished 2nd in the Woodbine Mile (g. I) . On Monday, however, Frankel was slowing down the IEAH boys and not letting them look too far ahead.

The field will likely consist of Pioneerof the Nile, the Bob Baffert trained colt by Empire Maker who won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) Saturday. Also likely to contend is the Julio Canani trained colt The Pamplemousse who scored a victory in the Grade III San Rafael in January. While both are talented, neither are that far ahead of Stardom Bound who ran a 94 Beyer Speed Figure in the Juvenile Fillies.

I think this decision is best left to trainer Bobby Frankel. If the Hall-of-Famer thinks his filly can run with the colts in the Santa Anita Derby, who is to say otherwise. I think it would be better to take the next step up the ladder facing a few good colts in the SA Derby then jumping in the deep end by going straight to the Kentucky Derby off another filly-only "prep" race. But I also think it is no shame in trying to win both the Santa Anita Oaks in March and then trying for the Kentucky Oaks (g. I) in May. Both are very prestigious races and would prove without a doubt that Stardom Bound was the best filly in the land.

Winning on synthetic, and dirt, as well as facing fillies from the west and east, would cement her already significant legacy. Click Here to Read More..